Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 70¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 70¢ (band 66¢–70¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 4.0:1 bid, $276.7k/$69.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1000, 2.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,039 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $70.1k in 24h

Book 4.0:1 bid, $276.7k/$69.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 14:38 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 71¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.31× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 14 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 71¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 71¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots