Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 74¢ at window start → 76¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 71¢ (band 56¢–71¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $209.2k/$584.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $404.5k in 24h

Book 2.8:1 ask, $209.2k/$584.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 12:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 74¢ → 77¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.21× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 42 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 77¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 76¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 76¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots