Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 28¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 28¢ (band 28¢–44¢)
  band from 160 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 ask, $2.3k/$3.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $133 in 24h

Book 1.7:1 ask, $2.3k/$3.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 12:34 UTC: Sustained reprice: 28¢ → 25¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots