Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.5pts: 44¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 44¢ (band 44¢–49¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 65.8× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $2.6k/$3.9k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 ask, $2.6k/$3.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 10:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 38¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots