Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 38¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 44¢ (band 44¢–49¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 36.4× this market's 7-day norm, $8.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.6:1 ask, $1.8k/$6.6k within 10¢

Book 3.6:1 ask, $1.8k/$6.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 15:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 41¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.64× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 41¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots