Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.8pts: 90¢ at window start → 88¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 90¢ (band 90¢–93¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 5.6× this market's 7-day norm, $18.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.9:1 ask, $50.9k/$198.9k within 10¢

Book 3.9:1 ask, $50.9k/$198.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 01:46 UTC: Band breach (lower): 90¢ → 88¢ (-1.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +1.9ptspts
• Peak move: +1.9pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 88¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots