Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.3pts: 22¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $49.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 20.2:1 ask, $625/$12.6k within 10¢

Book 20.2:1 ask, $625/$12.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 11:38 UTC: Band breach (lower): 22¢ → 21¢ (-0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 21¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 22¢, held -0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots