Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.3pts: 22¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $44.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 35.2:1 ask, $651/$22.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $200, 1.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,270 trades / 7d

Book 35.2:1 ask, $651/$22.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 14 Aug 2026, 00:10 UTC: Band breach (lower): 22¢ → 16¢ (-5.9pts), confirmed over 30s
• 14 Aug 2026, 00:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 20¢ (+3.9pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift -0.3pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 18¢, held +3.9ptspts
• Peak move: +6.1pts
• Held 5% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 22¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots