Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.1pts: 23¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 22¢ (band 22¢–26¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $51.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 12.4:1 ask, $1.1k/$14.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.0k, 19.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,279 trades / 7d

Book 12.4:1 ask, $1.1k/$14.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.9¢

Triggers (2)

• 14 Aug 2026, 14:01 UTC: Band breach (lower): 23¢ → 21¢ (-1.7pts), confirmed over 30s
• 14 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 21¢ → 17¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.36× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 21¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 16¢, held +6.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.7pts
• Held 40% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots