Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.7pts: 22¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 22¢ (band 22¢–26¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $44.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 36.9:1 ask, $495/$18.2k within 10¢

Book 36.9:1 ask, $495/$18.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.8¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 03:10 UTC: Band breach (lower): 22¢ → 21¢ (-1.2pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.26× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.4pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots