Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.2pts: 53¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $16.2k/$8.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $2.5k in 24h

Book 1.9:1 bid, $16.2k/$8.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.9¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 10:22 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 54¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 36% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 53¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots