Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 53¢ (band 50¢–53¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 bid, $19.7k/$8.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $2.4k in 24h

Book 2.3:1 bid, $19.7k/$8.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 17:16 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 55¢ (+1.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.47× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 55¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 55¢, held +1.9ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots