Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 95¢ at window start → 96¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 95¢ (band 92¢–95¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.0:1 bid, $101.5k/$34.4k within 10¢

Book 3.0:1 bid, $101.5k/$34.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 04:43 UTC: Band breach (upper): 95¢ → 96¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 96¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 96¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots