US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.0:1 bid, $10.6k/$3.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.5k, 8.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 4,845 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $76.9k in 24h

Book 3.0:1 bid, $10.6k/$3.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 14 Aug 2026, 14:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 24¢ → 27¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 14 Aug 2026, 15:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 24¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.06× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 51 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift -1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots