US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.2pts: 80¢ at window start → 80¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $100.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $33.5k/$51.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.8k, 4.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,463 trades / 7d

Book 1.5:1 ask, $33.5k/$51.1k within 10¢ · spread 0.7¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 07:14 UTC: Band breach (lower): 80¢ → 79¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 38 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 79¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 80¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.1pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 80¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots