US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.7pts: 79¢ at window start → 79¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 79¢ (band 79¢–95¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $107.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $30.4k/$59.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 3.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,478 trades / 7d

Book 1.9:1 ask, $30.4k/$59.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.2¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 09:14 UTC: Band breach (lower): 79¢ → 79¢ (-0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 29 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 79¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 79¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.1pts
• Held 61% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 79¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots