US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 79¢ at window start → 78¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 79¢ (band 79¢–94¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $95.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 ask, $22.8k/$44.6k within 10¢

Book 2.0:1 ask, $22.8k/$44.6k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 20:52 UTC: Band breach (lower): 79¢ → 79¢ (-0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 78¢, drift +0.3pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 79¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.4pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 78¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots