Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.8pts: 6¢ at window start → 7¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 7¢ (band 4¢–7¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.3× this market's 7-day norm, $11.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 bid, $3.0k/$2.1k within 10¢

Book 1.5:1 bid, $3.0k/$2.1k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 20:14 UTC: Band breach (upper): 6¢ → 7¢ (+0.9pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.28× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 7¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 7¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +0.9pts
• Held 89% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 7¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots