OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Window 14 Aug 2026, 11:41 UTC → 14 Aug 2026, 13:11 UTC

Price at window start 47¢ → at trigger 46¢ → at close 46¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 47¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 46¢ (band 46¢–60¢)
band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $55.7k/$62.6k within 10¢
VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $74.8k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 ask, $55.7k/$62.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

14 Aug 2026, 11:41 UTC: Band breach (lower): 47¢ → 46¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@sentdefender · X: posted 24 min before the break

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center has issued two separate advisories following reports of attacks on commercial vessels transiting outbound through the Strait of Hormuz. Both vessels were reportedly struck by one-way attack drones (UAVs). In both incidents, all crew members are reported safe, and no environmental impact or pollution has been reported.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 46¢, held +1.0ptspts
Peak move: +1.0pts
Held 100% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 46¢
Graded from 180 snapshots