Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 47¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 46¢ (band 46¢–60¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $44.0k/$71.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 1.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,032 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $114.3k in 24h

Book 1.6:1 ask, $44.0k/$71.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 04:07 UTC: Band breach (lower): 47¢ → 46¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 46¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 46¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots