Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 16¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• BOOK Book 12.9:1 bid, $237.8k/$18.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $129.0k in 24h

Book 12.9:1 bid, $237.8k/$18.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 02:47 UTC: Band breach (lower): 16¢ → 14¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 14¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 14¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots