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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +7.0pts: 85¢ at window start → 92¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 82¢ (band 42¢–82¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.4× this market's 7-day norm, $298.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.3:1 ask, $117.0k/$507.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $16.4k, 25.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 7,279 trades / 7d

Book 4.3:1 ask, $117.0k/$507.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 14 Aug 2026, 15:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 88¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 14 Aug 2026, 15:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 91¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 192 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 91¢, drift +3.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 92¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots