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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 66¢ at window start → 66¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $353.8k/$262.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $972, 4.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,831 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $23.6k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 bid, $353.8k/$262.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC: Band breach (upper): 66¢ → 67¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 67¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 67¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 66¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots