Best AI at the end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.6pts: 68¢ at window start → 68¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 68¢ (band 64¢–68¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $4.6k/$7.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $5.6k in 24h

Book 1.6:1 ask, $4.6k/$7.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 22:52 UTC: Band breach (upper): 68¢ → 68¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 68¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 68¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 68¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots