2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 17¢ at window start → 17¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $20.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $49.2k/$57.4k within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 ask, $49.2k/$57.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 14 Aug 2026, 18:44 UTC: Band breach (upper): 17¢ → 18¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.3× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 59 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 18¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 17¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots