Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 70¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
• BOOK Book 4.1:1 bid, $250.6k/$61.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.3k, 9.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,919 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $72.1k in 24h

Book 4.1:1 bid, $250.6k/$61.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 13 Aug 2026, 23:03 UTC: Band breach (upper): 70¢ → 70¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 17 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 70¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots