Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 33¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 32¢ (band 32¢–47¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $85.8k/$129.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $11.9k, 6.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,787 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $325.7k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $85.8k/$129.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC: Band breach (lower): 33¢ → 31¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 13 Aug 2026, 12:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 27¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 126 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 30¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 27¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots