Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -7.5pts: 35¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 34¢ (band 34¢–47¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 5.2× this market's 7-day norm, $10.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.7:1 ask, $1.8k/$8.2k within 10¢
• TIMING First reprice T+13m
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.1k, 3.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 353 trades / 7d
• WIRE Wire: @DeItaone T−13m, link confidence 85%: "ACKMAN MAKES HIS BIGGEST PORTFOLIO REVAMP IN YEARS Bill Ackman added six new holdings: Netflix ($NFLX), Visa ($V), M…"

Book 4.7:1 ask, $1.8k/$8.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 13 Aug 2026, 12:33 UTC: Band breach (lower): 35¢ → 32¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 13 Aug 2026, 12:37 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 29¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.19× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 32¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 27¢, held +8.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.0pts
• Held 94% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 27¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots