Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 47¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 47¢ (band 47¢–54¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 45.3× this market's 7-day norm, $8.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $2.9k/$2.9k within 10¢

Book 1.0:1 ask, $2.9k/$2.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 13 Aug 2026, 12:49 UTC: Band breach (lower): 47¢ → 45¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.31× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots