Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 53¢ at window start → 50¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 51¢ (band 51¢–56¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.9:1 bid, $23.2k/$5.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h

Book 3.9:1 bid, $23.2k/$5.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 13 Aug 2026, 04:51 UTC: Band breach (lower): 53¢ → 50¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.55× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 50¢
• Graded from 134 snapshots