Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.7pts: 53¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 53¢ (band 50¢–53¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $3.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $16.1k/$22.7k within 10¢

Book 1.4:1 ask, $16.1k/$22.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 13 Aug 2026, 07:07 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 54¢ (+0.7pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +0.9pts
• Held 72% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots