Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 31¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 30¢ (band 30¢–34¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $28.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 37.0:1 ask, $2.2k/$83.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $900, 2.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 526 trades / 7d

Book 37.0:1 ask, $2.2k/$83.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 13 Aug 2026, 18:22 UTC: Band breach (lower): 31¢ → 28¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +3.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 40% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 28¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots