US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 18¢ at window start → 18¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 18¢ (band 18¢–46¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $5.6k/$5.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $27.3k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 ask, $5.6k/$5.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 13 Aug 2026, 11:51 UTC: Band breach (lower): 18¢ → 18¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 18¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 18¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots