US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 19¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 18¢ (band 18¢–45¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $41.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $8.9k/$6.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1000, 2.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,331 trades / 7d

Book 1.4:1 bid, $8.9k/$6.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 13 Aug 2026, 18:06 UTC: Band breach (lower): 19¢ → 17¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 13 Aug 2026, 19:31 UTC: Sustained reprice: 17¢ → 14¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 55 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 17¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 14¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots