UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 23¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 22¢ (band 22¢–35¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $2.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $1.9k/$2.0k within 10¢

Book 1.1:1 ask, $1.9k/$2.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 13 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 23¢ → 20¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 20¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots