Fed decision in Sep 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.5pts: 66¢ at window start → 71¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 67¢ (band 50¢–67¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $343.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $79.0k/$178.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $21.3k, 16.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,851 trades / 7d

Book 2.3:1 ask, $79.0k/$178.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 13 Aug 2026, 12:42 UTC: Band breach (upper): 66¢ → 69¢ (+2.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 13 Aug 2026, 13:03 UTC: Sustained reprice: 69¢ → 73¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.15× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 109 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 69¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 73¢, held +6.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.5pts
• Held 60% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 71¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots