Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.3pts: 4¢ at window start → 3¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 3¢ (band 3¢–6¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 ask, $5.7k/$5.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $100.6k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 ask, $5.7k/$5.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 13 Aug 2026, 01:30 UTC: Band breach (lower): 4¢ → 2¢ (-1.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.48× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 3¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 3¢, held +1.3ptspts
• Peak move: +1.4pts
• Held 90% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 3¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots