Window 12 Aug 2026, 01:12 UTC → 12 Aug 2026, 02:42 UTC
Price at window start 95¢ → at trigger 90¢ → at close 38¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 03 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -57.8pts: 95¢ at window start → 38¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 90¢ (band 90¢–96¢) band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
VOLUME 6.2× this market's 7-day norm, $818.9k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $8.8k/$7.0k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.0k, 6.7× this market's typical big trade size baseline: 95th pct of 7,251 trades / 7d
Book 1.3:1 bid, $8.8k/$7.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (27)
12 Aug 2026, 01:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 95¢ → 90¢ (-5.2pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 90¢ → 85¢ (-5.1pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:18 UTC: Band breach (lower): 85¢ → 83¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 83¢ → 76¢ (-7.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 76¢ → 61¢ (-15.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 61¢ → 42¢ (-19.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 32¢ (-9.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 27¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 27¢ → 47¢ (+20.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:39 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 38¢ (-9.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 57¢ (+19.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 57¢ → 51¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:49 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 36¢ (-15.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 41¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 01:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 24¢ (-17.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 24¢ → 19¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:03 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 32¢ (+13.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:06 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 38¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 32¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 42¢ (+10.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 49¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 66¢ (+17.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:24 UTC: Sustained reprice: 66¢ → 76¢ (+9.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 76¢ → 59¢ (-16.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:32 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 45¢ (-13.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 37¢ (-9.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 02:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 37¢ → 40¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@FirstSquawk · X: posted 4 min before the break
DDHQ: Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary — David Crowley leads with 39.8%, followed by Francesca Hong at 34.1%, with an estimated 0% of the vote reported.