Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -10.4pts: 11¢ at window start → 0¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 89¢ (band 89¢–96¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 6.8:1 ask, $304/$2.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $7.9k in 24h

Book 6.8:1 ask, $304/$2.1k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (3)

• 12 Aug 2026, 06:15 UTC: Sustained reprice: 11¢ → 16¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 06:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 9¢ (-7.8pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 06:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 9¢ → 1¢ (-8.1pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.85× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 421 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 18¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 0¢, held -10.3ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 0¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots