Window 12 Aug 2026, 03:16 UTC → 12 Aug 2026, 04:46 UTC
Price at window start 59¢ → at trigger 67¢ → at close 10¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 03 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced -48.9pts: 59¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 90¢ (band 90¢–96¢) band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $391.7k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $3.0k/$4.9k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $12.5k, 14.9× this market's typical big trade size baseline: 95th pct of 9,258 trades / 7d
WIRE Wire: @financialjuice T+51m, link confidence 75%: "Boston Fed President Susan Collins: Would support September rate increase if inflation stays high - FT"
Book 1.6:1 ask, $3.0k/$4.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.9¢
Triggers (16)
12 Aug 2026, 03:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 67¢ (+8.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 67¢ → 74¢ (+6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:26 UTC: Sustained reprice: 74¢ → 68¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 68¢ → 57¢ (-10.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 57¢ → 63¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:38 UTC: Sustained reprice: 63¢ → 54¢ (-8.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:41 UTC: Sustained reprice: 54¢ → 50¢ (-4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 45¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:50 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 32¢ (-13.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 03:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 32¢ → 24¢ (-8.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 04:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 24¢ → 19¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 04:08 UTC: Sustained reprice: 19¢ → 14¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 04:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 10¢ (-3.8pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 04:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 10¢ → 14¢ (+3.8pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 04:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 14¢ → 8¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
12 Aug 2026, 04:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 8¢ → 11¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
Opening move ≈ 1.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
1762 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 69¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction