Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 18¢ at window start → 19¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 18¢ (band 15¢–18¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.2× this market's 7-day norm, $365.5k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 bid, $361.1k/$129.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $9.5k, 9.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,214 trades / 7d

Book 2.8:1 bid, $361.1k/$129.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 02:42 UTC: Band breach (upper): 18¢ → 19¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 85 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 19¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 19¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 19¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots