Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 16¢ at window start → 16¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 18¢ (band 18¢–27¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 4.0:1 ask, $1.1k/$4.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $3.6k in 24h

Book 4.0:1 ask, $1.1k/$4.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 12 Aug 2026, 06:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 13¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 08:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 16¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.37× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 13¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 16¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots