Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 37¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 36¢ (band 36¢–47¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.3:1 ask, $40.1k/$91.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $14.0k, 7.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,659 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $665.1k in 24h

Book 2.3:1 ask, $40.1k/$91.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (5)

• 12 Aug 2026, 12:02 UTC: Band breach (lower): 37¢ → 36¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 30¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 12:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 35¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 12:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 31¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 12 Aug 2026, 13:29 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 34¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 284 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +7.5pts
• Held 40% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots