Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 38¢ at window start → 38¢ at close
• BOOK Book 6.8:1 ask, $39.0k/$264.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $581.3k in 24h

Book 6.8:1 ask, $39.0k/$264.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 05:11 UTC: Band breach (lower): 38¢ → 36¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 53 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 36¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 38¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots