Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 46¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 47¢ (band 47¢–57¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 14.9× this market's 7-day norm, $2.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $3.5k/$1.4k within 10¢

Book 2.4:1 bid, $3.5k/$1.4k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 22:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 47¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 46¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots