Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 48¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 47¢ (band 47¢–57¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 14.5× this market's 7-day norm, $2.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $825/$691 within 10¢

Book 1.2:1 bid, $825/$691 within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 14:26 UTC: Band breach (lower): 48¢ → 45¢ (-2.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 45¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 87% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots