Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 34¢ at window start → 33¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 34¢ (band 34¢–47¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.7× this market's 7-day norm, $6.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $1.7k/$3.5k within 10¢

Book 2.1:1 ask, $1.7k/$3.5k within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 20:20 UTC: Band breach (lower): 34¢ → 34¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.04× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 33¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 33¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots