Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.2pts: 26¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• BOOK Book 5.1:1 ask, $3.6k/$18.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $22.8k in 24h

Book 5.1:1 ask, $3.6k/$18.1k within 10¢ · spread 0.7¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 21:20 UTC: Band breach (upper): 26¢ → 26¢ (+0.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift -0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 26¢, held +0.3ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 20% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots