Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 53¢ at window start → 53¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $3.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $9.5k/$5.2k within 10¢

Book 1.8:1 bid, $9.5k/$5.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 14:12 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 53¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 53¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 53¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 53¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots