Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 82¢ at window start → 84¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $4.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.4:1 ask, $8.6k/$37.8k within 10¢

Book 4.4:1 ask, $8.6k/$37.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 12 Aug 2026, 18:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 82¢ → 86¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 84¢, drift -1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 84¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 63% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 84¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots